Campaign 2018 Update: Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott
{By Alan M. Milner, Bindlesnitch}
I received the following email (excerpted below) in response to my donation to Bill Nelson’s campaign. It supports rumors that Rick Scott is going to run for Nelson’s seat.
It is absolutely essential to the future of the Democratic party that the Democrats protect Nelson’s seat in order to forestall further Republican inroads in the Senate, but Bill Nelson’s reelection bid has to be analysed with respect to the strange behavior of Florida voters over the past few election cycles, continually voting against their self-interest in a state where 38% of the registered voters are Democratic, 35% are Republicans and 24% are non-affiliated.
If you don’t live in Florida, you might not remember that the only reason Marco Rubio now infests the U.S. Senate is that he won a three-way race in 2010 in which he beat former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who campaigned as an independent after losing the primary battle for the Republican nomination to Rubio, and Democrat Kendrick Meek, a thoroughly ineffective Democratic candidate.
The only reason that Scott is in a position to run for the Senate in 2018 is that Charlie Crist decided not to run against him in 2010, preferring instead to run unsuccessfully for the open Senate seat that had been vacated by retiring Senator Mel Martinez. Alex Sink, who was the chief financial officer for the state of Florida under Charlie Crist, ran against Scott on the Democratic ticket, and nearly beat him, with Scott pulling in 48.87% of the vote against Sink’s 47.72% of the vote.
Once again, as is often the case in Florida, there was a third-party that made the difference, with Independence Party candidate Peter Allen pulling in a crucial 2.31% of the vote. Based on a review of the Independence Party positions on major issues, I’ve concluded that the majority of its members would have voted Democratic had there not been an Independence Party candidate, which would have given the win to Alex Sink instead of Scott.
In 2014, Charlie Crist, having failed to win his bid for a Senate seat against Rubio, tried to win back the governor’s office by running as a Democrat…and, once again, a third-party candidate made the difference between success and failure. This time, Scott polled 48.1% of the vote against Crist’s 47.1% of the vote. Libertarian party candidate Adrian Willie polled 3.8% of the vote. There is little doubt that Crist would have beaten Scott had the Libertarian party not fielded a candidate.
So, Scott was a “by the skin of his teeth” winner in two successive elections, aided and abetted by third-party candidates who split the vote, just as Crist split the vote in 2010, allowing Rubio to get his foot in the door of the U.S. Senate.
Democrats cannot afford to make these kinds of mistakes. It is absolutely essential that they keep Bill Nelson’s seat in Democratic hands and that means mounting a full-press campaign against the putative Republican nominee, whether it is Scott or someone else.
Democrats also have to start courting the non-aligned voters because they may represent the balance of power in the next election. As we have seen over and over again, with the exception of the lunatics in the Libertarian party, third-party candidates tend to split the vote AGAINST Democratic candidates while espousing a platform that tends to be more liberal than the Democratic party’s own platform.
Here’s the email that corroborates Scott’s probable entry into the Senate race.
From: Greg Goddard, Nelson for Senate <greg@nelsonforsenate.com>
To: Alan Milner <alanmilner@aol.com>
Sent: Fri, Mar 10, 2017 10:10 am
Subject: Nelson v. Scott polling results
Alan,
Thanks for everything you’re doing for Senator Nelson. I wanted to quickly touch base with an update on where we stand.
— Donald Trump is recruiting Rick Scott to run against us.
— Republicans are already running attack ads against us.
— Two recent polls have us leading a hypothetical matchup with Scott.
Here are the toplines:
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research:
Nelson 46, Scott 41
University of North Florida:
Nelson 44, Scott 38
I know Election Day isn’t tomorrow, but I promise you we’re working like it is — because we know what Donald Trump and Rick Scott are capable of doing. And together, it’s scary.
Here is an article about both of these polls.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/…/bill-nelson-tops-rick-scott-in…/
Let me know how you think we’re doing. And please keep investing in our campaign.
Thanks,
Greg Goddard
Nelson for U.S. Senate
