I think that Trump fears prosecution if he leaves office, no longer having the power and legal immunity he needs in order to survive, much like Putin. He cut so many corners, double-crossed so many people, broke so many laws, that’s it’s akin to the old Punjabi tale of the man who bamboozled a Tiger for a ride, but now has no way to get off that tiger, for fear of being eaten.

When Trump is forced to leave office I have no doubt that he will seek asylum in Russia. I think he and his handlers are too smart to risk an actual armed confrontation at the White House, as there’s no viable end-game here. Just immediate incarceration for willfully ignoring an election and interfering with its results.

I think it’s very likely that if Biden wins the election, Trump will take a diplomatic trip to Russia two or three weeks prior to inauguration. He will not show up to the inauguration. Once Biden is inaugurated, Trump will formally request political asylum in Russia (like Snowden did). There will be issues about what to do with the nuclear football and secret service staff once there. Russia, not wishing for an uncontrollable mess, will probably have these folks report to the Embassy in Moscow.

Prior to his election, Trump often played with the idea of running his own political talk show. Sort of a cross between the Apprentice, Sean Hannity, and Art Bell (lol). He planned on using it as a platform from which to make more money, re-brand himself, and become the next Rush Limbaugh. The run for President, in ways, had 2 goals. One was to pave the way for this TV show, should the election not go anywhere.

Russia Today has similar style talk shows, and I think it would be a mastermind move by Putin to have Trump host such a TV show from Moscow, where he could engage in all sorts of political demagoguery and undermine political legitimacy and stability in the United States. He could use the platform to do the following:

a. Perpetuate the myth that he is the Rightful and Lawful President of the United States, and that he was deposed via illegality by a “Pretender” (Biden) to the Oval Office. Think of the Catholic Charles Edward Stuart—the “Bonnie Prince Charlie,” grandson of former British King Charles II, last Catholic monarch of Britain who was deposed by the Glorious Revolution of the Protestant William of Orange. Stuart used his position from abroad to fund and incite Jacobite insurgents and subversives in Great Britain (with a regional focus on Scotland), with the hope of inciting an all-out rebellion that would allow him to assume the throne (which would be held by Hanoverians at the time of Culloden) and restore Catholicism as the official religion of Britain.

Trump would have ZERO ability to launch a politically successful uprising from abroad, but that’s not the point. Putin wins by destabilizing the United States, because it distracts us from interfering–in an organized and cohesive way—against Russian geopolitical actions abroad (also the sweetness of pure revenge).

b. Endorse Right-Wing candidates from Abroad and bring them into the Putin-funded global right-wing-nationalist resurgence (Russia is doing the same thing they did under Communism, in terms of promoting global instability and increasing their sphere of influence, but they are doing it with Nationalists, rather than Socialists).

c. Empower actual violent right-wing insurgents and would-be revolutionaries in the US.

d. Help foster greater ties and cooperation between the Kremlin and wealthy GOP families and institutions in the United States. I can easily imagine Blackwater, Betsy DeVoss and others like them cozying up to Putin to help them with future elections, and increased efforts to destabilize the United States (so they can regain power).

e. He could even use the position to set up a sort of “Government in Exile” of disgraced Republican lawmakers, talking heads and ex-convicts. The danger here, is that he may encourage extreme right-wing members of the U.S. military to abandon their posts, and join with Russia (bringing equipment, technology and training with them). This would be more likely in regions where the U.S. and Russia have military personnel situated near eachother, as in Syria, Balkans, near Kaliningrad (by Poland).

This is the smart move for Trump, and one that I would not be surprised if he took. He could re-incorporate his businesses in Russia, and basically become a transplanted American oligarch.

Never underestimate the diplomatic and propaganda gold of hosing a Deposed Monarch in your country, especially when it’s the former leader of your primary geopolitical opponent. You could gain all sorts of leverage and chips and tools by harboring such a person and giving them a platform.

I have no proof that this will happen. But based on history, and the cards Trump is currently holding, and the long-term game of those he works with, I think this is what game theorists would call his “Dominant Strategy,” or “Pareto-Optimal” outcome. There are simply so many benefits for Putin (and Trump) if he took this option, that I think we should regard it as the greatest possible threat and worst possible outcome of the situation we are now facing.

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