On The Matter of Polls
This is the second widely reported poll that shows Biden’s grip on the lead in the Democratic race for the nomination has slipped….substantially….
Bernie, Warren surge to tie Biden atop Democratic field
By STEVEN SHEPARD
08/26/2019
Politico
“Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have surged to tie with Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential field, according to a poll that suggests the three are solidifying their status as the top tier in the massive field.
The Monmouth University poll, released Monday, shows Sanders and Warren deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 percent, with Biden a point behind, at 19 percent. No other candidate cracks double digits: Kamala Harris is in fourth place, at 8 percent.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-poll-1475440
OK Amy, So now what? You cited the Monmouth poll in your comment on my previous post…
These “reports” can have a snowball effect and cause shifts and changes rather than merely reflect them….
If these poll numbers are accurate, and hold through the primaries, either Sanders or Warren will win the nomination.
They now have 40% of the likely Democratic voters between them.
The one who must leave or concede the race first is almost certain to throw his, or her, support to the other, leaving Biden well short of the numbers needed to win the nomination at the convention.
Keep in mind that the Dems have pledged to support the post convention nominee. However, until then, they are free to endorse or support whomever they choose…
The plot has definitely thickened….and will continue to do so from poll to poll….
08/28/2019 @ 9:30 am
I do not trust national polls because national polls do not accurately reflect conditions within the Electoral College. The only way to handicap a presidential election properly is to compare ONLY the results of state polls WITHIN that state because that is the controlling factor that will determine the eventual nominee.
08/28/2019 @ 10:23 am
The national media will continue to report the results of national polls in hopes of getting or creating national headlines…
08/28/2019 @ 9:39 am
I HOPE we get to see a Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders ticket. I have my doubts though because Biden is clearly the DNC’s choice. As corrupt as those Machiavellian bastards are I’m sure Primary rigging is in the works, regardless of how much voters express their choices via polls.
I’m also greatly concerned about the Democratic Platform that so far supports “Empire Building”, TPP, support of Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine, etc. The Presidential nominees don’t get total say as to the platform planks (mostly because the centrist, stealth Republicans are running things in the DNC and Congress) so the Party will be presenting MUCH more of a Centrists face during the elections. That will have an adverse effect on true Progressive/Independent turn-out AGAIN.
Of course, if their BS manipulations gives Trump another four years the DNC won’t own their own shit and will blame the left for not voting like they were “told”. (as opposed to running quality progressive candidates with a legit platform).