On The Matter of Polls

This is the second widely reported poll that shows Biden’s grip on the lead in the Democratic race for the nomination has slipped….substantially….

Bernie, Warren surge to tie Biden atop Democratic field

‘The main takeaway,’ says Monmouth University’s pollster, ‘is that the Democratic race has become volatile.’



“Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have surged to tie with Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential field, according to a poll that suggests the three are solidifying their status as the top tier in the massive field.

The Monmouth University poll, released Monday, shows Sanders and Warren deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 percent, with Biden a point behind, at 19 percent. No other candidate cracks double digits: Kamala Harris is in fourth place, at 8 percent.”


OK Amy, So now what? You cited the Monmouth poll in your comment on my previous post…

These “reports” can have a snowball effect and cause shifts and changes rather than merely reflect them….

If these poll numbers are accurate, and hold through the primaries, either Sanders or Warren will win the nomination.

They now have 40% of the likely Democratic voters between them.

The one who must leave or concede the race first is almost certain to throw his, or her, support to the other, leaving Biden well short of the numbers needed to win the nomination at the convention.

Keep in mind that the Dems have pledged to support the post convention nominee. However, until then, they are free to endorse or support whomever they choose…

The plot has definitely thickened….and will continue to do so from poll to poll….