What Happens If Trump Suspends the 2020 Election
There are widespread – and totally unfounded – concerns about Donald Trump cancelling the 2020 election by declaring martial law or through some other legal stratagem. That will never happen because Title 3 of the United States Code, Section 19 Item A (1) states:
If, by reason of death, resignation, removal from office, inability, or failure to qualify, there is neither a President nor Vice President to discharge the powers and duties of the office of President, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, upon his resignation as Speaker and as Representative in Congress, act as President.
If no election was held prior to January 20, 2021, then NO ONE has been qualified as either president or vice president of the United States by the Electoral College (which is actually the sole function of the Electoral College) and the presidency of the United States would be automatically conferred on the Speaker of the House of Representatives…or at least that’s what would happen except for one minor detail:
The terms of office of all sitting members of the House of Representatives expires on January 3, 2021.
Therefore, if no election has been held prior to January 3, 2020….THERE WILL BE NO HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES because neither the Constitution nor any law ever anticipated the possibility that there might not be any election at all.
What happens then?
Under the Presidential Line of Succession Act of 1947. if the Speaker of the House of Representatives in not able to assume the presidency, the office goes to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, who is the senior sitting member of the majority party.
Right now, that’s Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa….except for one additional problem.
There are 23 Republican Senators running for re-election in 2020. All 23 of those Senators will no longer be members of the Senate after January 3, 2020. There are 12 Democratic Senators who are also up for re-election. They will also be out on their asses on January 3, 2021.
There are currently 53 Republicans in the Senate. Subtracting the 23 disqualified Republicans leaves the Senate with 30 Republican Members. There are 47 Democrats (including the two independents who vote with the Democrats.) Subtracting 12 disqualified Democrats leaves the Senate with 35 Democratic members.
Under this scenario, in the absence of a qualifying election, the Democrats would outnumber the Republicans and, therefore, the Senior Democratic Senator would become president of the United States.
So, if the Republicans are stupid enough to attempt to suspend the elections through martial law or some other device, the next president of the United States wouldn’t be Donald Trump, or Joe Biden, or Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Grassley. This would also mean that Mitch McConnell would no longer be a United States Senator. He’s not going to like that very much.
As a matter of fact, if Trump were to attempt to suspend the election, there are 23 Republicans who would vote along with the Democrats to impeach and convict Donald Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors if he attempts to suspend the elections, the same 23 senators who would lose their jobs if no election is held in November.
Therefore, the next president of the United States would be Senator Patrick Leahy, Democrat of Vermont, because he is the senior Democratic Senator and therefore automatically becomes President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate for around one minute, after which he would sworn in as the 46th President of the United States.
But wait, there’s still one more wrinkle: the governors of the states or, in some cases, their respective legislatures could immediately appoint replacements for the missing senators. This complicates matters because the question would then arise as to whether the governors of those states and their respective legislatures were legally entitled to serve in those capacities in the event that no election were held. In most states, the state constitutions have language similar to the federal Constitution to the effect that the terms of office of governors and legislators expire on the same date, usually the date that federal offices expire.
If there were no state elections either, then anyone who was running for re-election would be disqualified and would no longer be eligible to serve as either governors or members of the state legislature. There are actually only 11 governor’s offices up for grabs this year, which means that the legislatures of those eleven states would have to appoint interim governors before they could appoint interim senators. Nine of the eleven states are Republican. Two are Democratic.
This might bring us back to Chuck Grassley rather than Patrick Leahy because there are more states controlled by the Republican party than by the Democratic party
Despite that uncertainty, we know this much for sure: If no elections are held next November, Donald Trump will not be president on January 21, 2121.
Bitey
04/16/2020 @ 5:40 pm
That’s interesting. Of course, status quo has to be considered the most likelihood. However, if I am not mistaken, your entire analysis stands on the prospect of the US Constitution remaining intact, and all necessary parties agreeing to that. That could be a problem for a variety of reasons. First, Trump has already shown his disdain for our institutions, and even the Constitution. He wouldn’t avoid bending it out of mere respect fir it. Second, he’d probably need Republican Senators to go along with him to some degree to make a suspension of the Constitution possible. Color me ‘concerned’ as far as that goes. Third, the ‘what’s in it for me’ part, with “me” being the Senators and maybe the Attorney General. Trump now has a $500 Billion dollar slush fund with no oversight on how it is spent. I’ll bet he could peel of a few Senators from their Constitutional oaths for a small part of that. Fourth, he might need some help from a foreign military with not so warm feelings about democracy to take on some portion of the US military who might want to resist him. Check! All of that could be accomplished with about one tenth of the $500 Billion dollar slush fund at his disposal. Currently, our unemployment rate is around 17% unofficially. That will be inked in the next time that statistic is reported. That’s just after a month or so of our current situation. Imagine the pressure after 4, 5, or 6 months of this situation…worsened. Private sector help could be bought. Hell, they may even buy in. If there is one Gordon Sondland out there, there must be another. Trump might offer him the Ambassadorship to Oranges…or whatever. Some other billionaire may want to rename Paramus NJ after his first psychiatrist. Who knows. The whole point is, your analysis is based on a tremendous amount of stability. We are currently in, and descending into an unprecedented amount of instability. At one time, it was thought that the US Civil War, and WWI would only last weeks, maybe months. Shit happened.
Bitey
04/16/2020 @ 5:50 pm
Incidentally, Chuck Grassley is from Iowa. Don’t worry, if you’re not from either one of these states, it is a near certainty that you confuse or conflate them. I have encountered countless Americans who have responded to me directly, and immediately, “Iowa”, when I have explained to them that I am from Ohio. It has an eerie (not the lake) consistency. It’s like I said, may I have some batter to spread on my toast, and the other person says, ‘butter’? In America, unless you’re from one of these two states, you tend not to know that there actually two separate ones, with very similar names. Trust me, it happens.
Bitey
04/16/2020 @ 5:52 pm
…there are
Ron Powell
04/16/2020 @ 5:41 pm
This is a good post on an important topic and question…
I’ve done some thinking and light research on the matter. This excerpt from an article in USA Today follows the reasoning that I would apply to the question:
“Trump can’t just cancel the election, because there is no federal election for president; instead, it’s 50 state elections. And even if some of those 50 states tried to appoint presidential electors without holding a vote, there are enough state laws on the books that would be enforced by Democratic governors to prevent Trump from obtaining an Electoral College majority through potential rogue actions of Republican-controlled legislatures….”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/26/coronavirus-pandemic-trump-cannot-cancel-2020-election-column/2898418001/
Alan Milner
04/16/2020 @ 10:31 pm
My apologies to Mr. Grassley, Iowa and Ohio although I don’t know who was insulted most by that error.
Bitey
04/17/2020 @ 2:10 pm
Admittedly, Ohio is a refined taste. Iowa just tastes like corn. And, I like corn. Don’t get me wrong. Ohio, though, well, Ohio is special. Jim Thorpe played his first pro football game here. Pro football originated here. Jesse Owens is from here. (Born in the South, but grew up here). Dean Martin and Clark Gable are both from here. Doris Day too. The three of them all from the same area. We’re the home of Rock and Roll. Phil Donahue is from here. Tom Hanks started his acting career here. Martin Sheen is from here. Bob Hope is from here. Paul Newman too. (He went to my elementary, junior high, and high schools.). Roy Rogers is from Ohio. Ruby Dee is from here. Jimmy The Greek Snyder is from here, as is Alan Ruck. Joel Grey is from the suburb next to my hometown. (I met him once at a restaurant and told him of what we had in common. He was very nice.). Debra Winger and Jonathan Winters are from Ohio. John Lithgow and Carol Kane are from Ohio, and so many more. (Better not forget Thomas Edison and the Wright Brothers).
The Thompson submachine gun was born in Ohio. The padded bicycle seat was invented here. “A Report from the World” was an event held in Cleveland in 1947 where speakers from around the world discussed what was expected from the US after WWII. From that conference came the idea to rebuild post war Europe. Ever have a Lifesaver candy? Invented in Cleveland. Are there alkaline batteries in your TV remote? Also invented in Cleveland.
I do like corn, though. I suppose it’s a toss-up.