Mission Unthinkable
And now for some bad news.
Reportedly, China is racing the world to be the first to come up with a vaccine for Covid-19. I heard that several days ago, and did not pay particular attention to it. It did not strike me as surprising, or all that threatening. Frankly, I thought that if China got there first, they’d just have bragging rights for saving the planet. Until about 20 minutes ago, I thought the sooner the better, no matter who gets credit.
Then, a half hour or so ago, my wife and I were talking about various levels of participation at workplaces around town. We read some statistics. One industry has a 7% attendance currently. That’s a small number, I thought. We are generally not set up for people to be able to work with a minimum of 6 feet of distance at all times. Then I thought, what is the military doing? There are scant few military activities that will allow for that much distance. The military works, travels, fights, and rests in groups for the most part. Solitude doesn’t really exist there.
Then it dawned on me. A nuclear power who has a cure before anyone else does has a military advantage that roughly approximates being the only nuclear power. Nuclear weaponry can’t win a nuclear conflict. It can only make nuclear conflict too costly to attempt. At least that has been the case for the last 70 years or so. Actual conquest will still require boots on the ground, rifles, and human hands. Conquest still requires someone march in in numbers and physically grab something from someone else.
A single day of China having a vaccine before the U.S. means that they could invade with troops protected with inoculation, destroy whatever research locations are working on the U.S. vaccine, and fight against an ever more weakened military and populace…if it came to that. If anyone actually fought.
President Trump is currently thinking in terms of “opening” the U.S. up on a county by county basis, for the benefit of the economy. All by itself, it is a terrible idea. If he does, and we are weakened a bit more as a country in the process, and China coincidentally, contemporaneously develops a vaccine, we could be extremely vulnerable.
Unlike nuclear weapons, this wont work as a threat. The time window is small. It would have to be used quickly or abandoned as a plan. Presumably, it would also be easier for China to use such a plan against the U.S. than the other way around. They have a manpower advantage. I do not think this scenario is likely, but it strikes me as odd that it has not been discussed in the news. Although improbable, I think it is a greater likelihood than a missile launch from Cuba ever was by the Soviets.
Enjoy your weekend.
UPDATE:
Now, that’s what I’m talking about. In fact…that’s what I was talking about.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/30/national-security-council-sounded-early-alarms-about-coronavirus/
2nd UPDATE:
The Coronavirus Is the Worst Intelligence Failure in U.S. History
03/28/2020 @ 9:28 am
Unlikely, out of character for the cautious and patient Chinese, and logistically very difficult.
The first problem is getting here to invade. China doesn’t have a navy or Air Force remotely like ours at the moment. They might in several years but they don’t now. They can’t project air power because they’ve only got a couple of smaller carriers and have stopped building more because they can’t build nuclear reactors small and powerful enough for big enough carriers and because their carrier-based aircraft are basically crap because they’re using underpowered Chinese engines, so bad that a Chinese military publication referred to their main carrier-based aircraft, the J15, as a “flopping fish.” They don’t have armament capacity if they fly any distance and they don’t have range.
Even if they could project, the Chinese haven’t been successful at building stealth. India recently reported being able to spot Chinese stealth aircraft on radar without any problem at all. American stealth works. Not only do we have better aircraft, we have a lot of them, and if they were to get their actually non-stealth aircraft here in any numbers, they’d have a lot of trouble with our F15’s and F16’s.
The nuclear risk is too great. They’d be gambling that if an invasion were anything like successful we wouldn’t launch. Think about who’s President for a minute and ask yourself what the odds were he wouldn’t launch.
It would not be a totally sick army vs. a totally healthy one. The US would field a mostly healthy army fighting on home ground and better equipped. Some of our troops would probably be outfitted for chemical warfare which would prevent contagion. It would take time for enough American soldiers to get sick. The Chinese would need overwhelming success really fast. They’d be highly unlikely to get it.
The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on exports. That’s why Trump was right about tariffs (though he executed terribly and didn’t use them properly) – reduced trade between China and the US hurts the Chinese economy more because of how lopsided the balance of trade is. China is not a major importer of American product but the US is a huge importer of Chinese product. If the American market dries up, so does Chinese employment, and that makes their government vulnerable.
03/28/2020 @ 10:17 am
I agree that it would be out of character for the Chinese. I think a vulnerability such as lacking a vaccine presents a level of vulnerability unmatched in American history since, maybe, the War of 1812. I think it may exceed the vulnerability of 1957 Sputnik, and 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Nuclear wars can’t be won, so that advantage alone did not complete our vulnerability.
Conversely, a human force, smaller in number and neutralized by disease presents a workable vulnerability. The time sensitive aspect is in launching an attack, but not in completing it. A successful beginning, given the size advantage that China has, would determine the outcome. It would be won or lost with the vulnerability window. Also, the US vulnerability will conceivably never include such a weak individual as commander in chief in the foreseeable future. We have a rare combination of weaknesses at the moment.
03/31/2020 @ 7:35 am
Interesting assessment of Trump. Haven’t heard that one. It explains why McConnell keeps him
06/26/2020 @ 10:45 am
“…With the world distracted by the coronavirus pandemic, China’s military has encroached upon its neighbors’ territories on several fronts throughout the spring and now into summer, flexing its military might in ways that have raised alarms across Asia and in Washington…”
Nailed it!
03/28/2020 @ 9:34 am
2nd reply of two
It occurs to me that in my previous comment I left out details concerning American stealth aircraft, in this case F22’s and F35’s. In dogfighting exercises the US military holds, F15’s and F16’s went against F35’s, of which we have a lot and are constantly building more. We’ve got I think just under 200 F22’s. The most common comment of legacy aircraft pilots was “we never saw you” on their way to a 20/1 kill ratio in favor of the F35. That’s what China would be up against if they managed to get here and it’s what they’d face in the Pacific.
03/28/2020 @ 10:03 am
Again, I don’t think an invasion is likely, but I think a temporary biological advantage could leapfrog all of that. Presumably the Chinese could launch a light force from Africa and South America. Also, they could wage a war of attrition against us with their numbers. That would apply economically as well.
As for Trump, he’s a curious case. I think he is the least likely to launch anything of any president in memory. Trump never wages a strategic defense to anything. His defenses are always emotional tactics. He’s constitutionally incapable of making command decisions. He seeks to avoid all accountability. He always seeks a crowd to force the results that he wants. He lacks the capacity to fully communicate a what, and a why. He couldn’t fire Comey, or Mulvaney, or Sessions, etc. He arranges conditions where he hopes they will vacate. He’s content to wait extraordinary lengths of time rather than be accountable for the decision. He couldn’t possibly lead a military objective. He’s backward looking to the extent that he understands anything. He is not capable of constructing a future concept.
His hand gestures are interesting too. One of his greatest tells is when he talks with both hands, palms facing out, and flapping in and out like he’s shining a wall with both hands. When he does this, his words are always seeking agreement. Sometimes almost begging. His begs sound different because they involve complements of his opponents, like he has recently with Cuomo. He gestures desperately with this, please don’t attack me posture, while spewing compliments. The facial expressions and tone of voice are masks for his fear. When he appears to be decisive, like with Syria, the Kurds, and Turkey, he is running away decisively, not attacking. Not only do I not think Trump would attack China, I don’t think he would defend himself/us.
03/29/2020 @ 3:40 pm
nothing like a Sunday
curious if a kaleidoscopic projector upon garden roof
would incident extraterrestrial (I am spellbound w/o redline 7,ooo)
communique…I am reaching out for Ideology Utopia & Fantasy,
Dr. Ihab Hussein — inclusive rarefied as cedar plank grilled
Columbia River salmon.
Beulah and me once saw Willie Mays hit four home runs
same game
bright wind-wafted long Sunday blue-umbrellaed afternoon
from behind the visitors’ dugout in aqua chairs God we stood
cheered for freedom
And now ‘yam reading Bit x Bitney
going going gone
almost shadow-boxed that
crowd mic
jpHart
(Mackinac Bridge)
03/29/2020 @ 4:10 pm
I’ll say!
02/17/2023 @ 10:01 am
… without losing track …