National Predictions Based on In-State Polls
In 2016, the Clinton campaign made an egregious error: they read the national polls that said they were going to win the popular vote…and relaxed, instead of continuing to push a full-court press in certain key states.
As a result, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote…and lost the election in the Electoral College.
Recently, I’ve noticed pundits from across the political spectrum referring to national polls as if they actually meant something and projecting their predictions on the basis of those beauty contests, when, in fact, they don’t mean a thing when it comes to projecting election results almost a year before election day.
The only polls that have any meaning are in-state polls….but in-state polls are conducted sporadically and, once the primary has been held, they are often only sporadically repeated, and then only in states where the decision hasn’t already been decided. (Candidates for state and county level offices continue to conduct their own polls but those polls are virtually useless for evaluating the condition of the presidential campaigns in those districts because they are focused on the state’s issues.)
Unfortunately, reliable summaries of in-state polls are difficult to accumulate and evaluate…but there are people out there that are doing the work.
On the (very) pretentiously-named Election Predictions Official Website , as of today, the election map indicates that Donald Trump will beat Joe Biden by 314 electoral votes to Biden’s 224.
This analysis is based upon the most recent poll taken in each state, regardless of source, and without evaluating the reliability of the polls in question. Some of the polls that were used were months-old and do not reflect recent political news, both good and bad, for the candidates.
The actual outcome of the election will depend upon how well the Democrats do at focusing their efforts on the same battleground states that have decided the past two elections, beginning with Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, currently listed as a weak win for Trump. Pennsylvania is a traditional Democratic stronghold, but it has turned pink. Turning it blue again is absolutely essential. Without Pennsylvania, Biden loses.
Michigan, with 15 electoral votes, is another former Democratic stronghold that has turned faint pink and will be a very difficult lift for Democrats because of the state’s large Muslim American population which could deliver the state to Trump over the situation in Gaza. Here, the pressure point is that Trump has stated that he wants to do away with birthright citizenship, which confers native-born citizenship rights on the children of illegal immigrants…but that change will also rebound against the children of legal immigrants whose first-generation children will be deprived of their automatic citizenship rights if Trump wins. For Michigan to vote for Trump under these circumstances is a classic case of cutting off your nose to spite the other guy’s face.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, is going to be a harder lift than Michigan. The former liberal stronghold has drifted to the right and into the clutches of the Republican party. I don’t quite understand yet what’s poisoning Wisconsin’s attitude toward Biden, but there’s a shitload of Republican money flowing into Wisconsin.
Even if Biden picks up all three of these battleground states, he will still need two more electoral votes….which means that he needs to convert either Arizona (11 electoral votes) or Nevada (6 electoral votes) but good political common sense dictates that he must go all-in on both states to be sure of winning at least one. Nevada should be pretty easy to pick off, but Arizona has gone batshit crazy and may not be winnable.
At the same time, the Biden campaign also has to shore up three states that are merely pastel blue, Colorado (10), Minnesota (10) and Virginia (13). Losing any one of these three loses the election.
None of this is good news because the Biden administration is being distracted from the campaign by the situations in Gaza and Ukraine.
It is my belief that the Hamas attack on southern Israel was initiated to obtain this precise result, turning Michigan against the Democratic party. Make no mistake about it. Putin wants Trump back in the White House to do his bidding and if that happens the illusion of democracy will simply fade away.
03/06/2024 @ 11:11 am
I’m glad your final paragraph is included. I have been thinking that very thing and it worries me to complete exasperation.
My dad, a WWII vet and chronic habitual gambler told me in an early lecture meant to cause me to gird my loins for the future, that I needed to know that in all things important, “The fix is in”.
03/07/2024 @ 4:00 am
Whoa Arthur Stone! Though adage grants sustenance I get sustained ironically [etYmology.com] e.g.:
AD (advertising!) AGE. I am not alone; anxiously we BS-ers anticipate your renewed erudition {…} so why in the hades don’t you rejuvenate your overdue freelance OS-like POSTS? Grace us redux!
Sorry to learn of the wounded knee.
Torn meniscus or some-such lesser agony as a baker’s cyst?
Care to illustrate how you got hurt?
Right now I picture you fireside with an Irish Setter.
Right now I salute your father ….
03/06/2024 @ 11:44 am
While I acknowledge that the Hamas attack is inconvenient for Biden’s electoral prospects, I do not believe that it has anything to do with American electoral politics. October 7th isn’t just coincidentally the same date as the Yom Kippur war. It is literally, objectively the same date. And with the motivational divining rod pointing in that direction, there are a hundred other reasons that Hamas chose to do what they did. I’m not justifying it, of course.
And as for the poll numbers, the way this works reminds me of a song by Tracy Bonham called, “Everything’s Fine”. What’s good about this song is that it taps into human nature. When things suck, we tend to say “everything’s fine”, and when it’s fine we say it sucks. We do that to get the listener’s attention. If polled voters just answered with contentment, it wouldn’t seem worth answering. What follows along with that is that the contended don’t bother answering. I can’t guarantee that everything is fine…but I think it is. https://youtu.be/2Xi8NvSetZc?si=ILtMHs52EUXOhxnj
03/07/2024 @ 5:32 pm
JP,
Completely torn meniscus.
I worked in construction for years. & years of Shito-ryu Okinawan karate on the way to and past a black belt. Then I made a friend nearly 30 years younger in the new town. We went chasing steelhead and I slipped on a muddy trail trying to keep up. Ended up doing a face plant in the stream as he deftly hooked, landed and released the anadromous beauty. Thanks for the compliments. It seems you remember me as “alsoknownas” but I do not anticipate that level of participation again. No Irish Setter, but a playful and busy Bengal cat sets here in a sunbeam.
03/06/2024 @ 12:01 pm
I had completely forgotten the relevance of the date with respect to the Yom Kippur war, and that certainly was a trigger for the launch date…but the attack itself and the public relations shitstorm following it has Russia’s fingerprints all over it in my opinion. Thanks for the comments. I have been feeling like I’ve been talking into an empty canyon somewhere.
03/06/2024 @ 5:49 pm
I’m always reading and looking forward to seeing something. I just don’t comment unless I feel I have something to contribute. I do sincerely believe that poll responses are not good indications of sentiment. How voters donate their cash is a better indication. Words are free and tend to be littered about everywhere.
There is an old Marine Corps expression that goes, “a bitching Marine is a happy Marine.” It essentially means, yes, the situation sucks. Now, get up that hill and kill someone.
03/06/2024 @ 12:03 pm
I appreciate the clear headed observation.
Dad also said “Once the knees go you’re a goner”. As I sit here, with my cantaloupe sized left knee, following surgery yesterday, I fully intend to prove him wrong.
03/07/2024 @ 12:32 am
Funny,
I thought the attack was about Iran trying to derail Israel and Saudi Arabia establishing open relations. Russia is an interesting theory but I don’t think their influence goes there.
Yes, I’m worried, but I think all the midterms have gone in our favor, and that’s with a Democrat in the White House. We’re not dead yet. .
03/14/2024 @ 10:08 pm
Detroit City