2024: At-Risk Senate Seats Lean to The Right
The odds of the Democratic party holding onto the Senate in 2024 are frighteningly high against that outcome.
A new CNN story lists ten senate seats that may be up for grabs next year. Eight of them belong to Democrats; only two belong to Republicans.
Among the eight Democratic seats at risk, you have to include the one that belongs to Arizona’s once Democratic but now independent turncoat Kyrsten Sinema. The other eight include West Virginia’s Democrat in name only Joe Manchin, Joe Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, and the seat that is currently occupied by Michigan’s retiring Debbie Stabenow. The two Republicans on the list are Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida.
It’s going to be a long election night because we won’t know who owns America until all of these races are decided.
Summary: Out of these ten races, five, including West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, look good for the Democrats, if you consider Manchin a Democrat, but the two Republican seats in Texas and Florida are, alas, also safe next year. This leaves three states that are more or less up for grabs: Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Prognosis: It is absolutely essential that the Democrats sweep all seven of their at-risk states. If they lose even one of those states, they will lose control of the Senate. If the Republicans hold onto the House, win just one seat in the Senate, and move back into the White House, the American experiment will come to a dismal end. If Manchin returns to the Senate expect him to turn his coat and sit down with the Republicans if a Republican moves into the White House. This means that the Democrats absolutely must hold all seven of their at-risk seats and pick up one Republican senate seat. If the Democrats keep the Oval Office in the family, Manchin will not change sides because he will have more power as the Deciding Seat in the Senate if a Democrat is in the White House. which means the Dems must pick up one Senate seat. The chances of that happening are vanishingly low right now.
The handicapping of these races looks like this:
Arizona: No one understands Arizona, not even the people who live there. Sinema has burned her bridges with the Democratic party and it is a 50/50 guess whether the Democrats will retake her seat. As an independent, Sinema’s deep war chest won’t help much because she won’t have a party infrastructure to build her campaign upon. If Kari Lake throws her hat into the ring and wins the Republican nomination, the state will send a Democrat – any Democrat – to the Senate in 2024. Otherwise, this is an open horse race.
West Virginia: If Joe Manchin jumps into the presidential sweepstakes as a third-party long shot, his seat will be claimed by whichever Republican gets nominated because Manchin is the only Democrat who could win that seat again. Manchin is no idiot. He’s not going to give up a safe seat in the Senate for the impossible dream of winning the presidency but, because he is a Democrat in name only, that’s a pretty cold comfort for the Democrats.
Montana: Joe Tester has even less charisma than Joe Manchin, who doesn’t have much himself, but he is in his fourth term and has strong bona fides as a real-life Montana farmer who is politically savvy and has a nice big war chest. CNN calls this race the second-best chance the Republicans have to pick up a seat. They are wrong. Democrats win here.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown, another fourth-term Democrat, is a strong campaigner who has plenty of money, and national visibility, and is close enough to the middle of the road on lifestyle to squeak out one more victory. This state will follow the trend. If a Republican wins the White House, Sherrod will probably go down.
Nevada: Jacky Rosen is a relatively low-key first-term senator who hasn’t ruffled any feathers but has not made herself visible either. On the other hand, she’s a good fundraiser and Nevada’s younger average voters are trending Democratic. The Democrats will prevail here.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is in the middle of an identity crisis. Once a liberal bastion, the state’s Nordic sensibilities have been subverted by influxes of right-wing coves from Confederate or, er, more conservative states. They returned GOP party hack Ron Johnson for a second term in 2022 despite his ties to the MAGA movement or, perhaps, because of them. Second-term Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin has no declared opponents in either the primaries or the general election mostly because no one seems to want to run against her but there are a couple of Deep Pocket Republicans who appear to be eyeing her seat. Mark this one Up For Grabs.
Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey sure does look presidential. An international trade geek, Casey can campaign on his “get tough with China” stance and look even more presidential doing it. Another fourth-term Senator with a relatively high profile and possible future presidential ambitions, if there is a Democratic party left after 2024. Casey will come out snarling next year and probably win.
Michigan: Michigan used to be a solid Democratic state but things have changed. With Debbie Stabenow retiring, Democrats expect Representative Elissa Slotkin to defeat actor Hill Harper in the primaries, but this senate seat is a toss-up. Slotkin has not been a great fundraiser and Michigan may very well be the most expensive Senate in the country so, even though we don’t know who the Republicans will put up against her, this one is too close for anyone to call.
Texas: Okay, Ted Cruz is probably one of the least liked members of the Senate among his fellow senators and with his own electorate. He has gained a well-deserved reputation as a serious nut job, which is a real achievement in the GOP and he is facing one of two serious Democratic contenders who can outspend him and aren’t carrying his excess baggage. Nevertheless, this is Texas and, with Greg Abbott as governor, who knows what might happen next year? Too close to call.
Florida: This cuts close to home. I live in Florida and I am deeply embarrassed by both of Florida’s senators but, of the two, Marco Rubio is just plain stupid, while Rick Scott is a seriously malevolent personality who once led the company found guilty of the single most egregious Medicare fraud in the history of the program. He should never have been Florida’s governor, where he did huge great harm, and certainly should not returned to the Senate in 2024. Unfortunately for Democratic prospects in 2024, Scott can simply buy his seat back again with his private wealth but DeSantis might just weaken him by association, being the blunderful Republican incumbent in what used to be Rick Scott’s second home. No contest here.
I just wasted two hours writing this drivel. You just spent five minutes reading it. What is wrong with us?
koshersalaami
07/29/2023 @ 8:18 am
Good question.
Has anyone heard from Ron? I tried emailing and texting.
Suzanne
08/03/2023 @ 8:49 am
Thank you for checking. Given the pig pile of recent political developments, he’d almost certainly feature something in one of his ‘In Case You Missed This’ posts.
I don’t have internet skills… know he lives in CT (Hartford or New Haven?) and he’s older (70’s 80’s). Maybe I’ll try a little googling.
Art Stone
08/06/2023 @ 6:32 pm
I tried Google. No info about R.P. anywhere.
Suzanne
08/07/2023 @ 7:33 am
I found this, but only this. It’s good though. Hope he is ok.
Alan Milner
08/07/2023 @ 10:45 am
Apparently, you can’t insert hyperlinks into comments because the comment breaks the formatting for the comments section. I have removed the link and am in the process of turning the link into the basis for a new post about Ron..
JP Hart
07/29/2023 @ 10:39 pm
☢ne cann☢t ph☢t☢graph thunder
PRAY GOD lightning has n☢t struck
☢ne cann☢t ph☢t☢graph thunder
Alan Milner
07/30/2023 @ 12:32 pm
Brilliant simile of sorts. Can I steal it? Did you lift it from someone else or is this your original
Bitey
07/30/2023 @ 7:47 am
It isn’t drivel. Those are important questions, and good analyses.
Strong man coups have swept Africa from West to East. A U.S. general is predicting that their U.S. will be at war with China by 2025, and he is preparing his troops accordingly. Putin is holding Ukrainian grain hostage. Netanyahu is is dangerously close to authoritarianism in Israel now. What happens in the U.S. Senate could be a very large global domino.
Art Stone
07/30/2023 @ 10:41 am
Not a waste of time at all Alan.
Thanks for taking the time.
JP Hart
08/01/2023 @ 3:21 pm
Electrified cement could turn houses and roads into nearly limitless batteries
By Robert F. Service | Mon, 31 Jul 2023*
Eight miles high and falling fast — HEY — AUGUST NIGHT (I’ve been gone a good while) M🟢J0 ridin’ ridin’ {lo;} Let me check with Rain Man, Al … It is d🟢t 🟢rg … immediate above is Science AAAS 🥎*
JP HART
08/20/2023 @ 3:08 pm
Relax:Nightly News Full Broadcast (19Aug23) STAY tuned for
Mr. Ballard’s closing inspirational several minutes (SEAL puppy & tyke Theo Zogata misty new glasses and that kind kid Jackson’s porch oration …! HOPE for everyone‼ Ap0llOgies for all my typ0s but all this running from the sandman has freakedout my keyboard. It’s droppydanker than a cigar humididor during our CubanMissleCrisis
time for this natural born travelling man to get back to Big Sur
Alan Milner
08/20/2023 @ 3:14 pm
What the hell are you smoking?
JP Hart
08/20/2023 @ 4:32 pm
Old stogies ….
koshersalaami
08/24/2023 @ 8:49 am
…you have found
Short
But not too big around
Alan Milner
08/25/2023 @ 12:52 pm
WTF? I don’t get the refences.
koshersalaami
09/01/2023 @ 12:30 pm
King of the Road. Roger Miller
JP Hart
08/25/2023 @ 2:19 pm
Trust you are well…Susy Q (Quant) and I are scanning logistics, our goal-foray to Redwood, California. Like my father before me I’m a working man. Pink and Stevie Nicks sold out quickly but Ms Quant dallied with which silk dress to wear and I’d slight logistical happenstance with my burgundy tux at the drycleaners. Oft alert to the sunrise in ankle depth sand hwy Koshersalaami (s/r HEY HEY Koshersaalami) I am looking forward to your analysis of the REP🕵GOP debate wherein the Kennedy half dollar yet spins as happy would-be iconoclasts attempt olympiad pole-vaults with what’s it swizzle sticks. And let’s not get started on the Panama Canal thirsty shallows. Legal tender indeed. Meanwhile, I’ve a plethora of interest about my Budweiser Clydesdale clock and just now thought I saw ’em walking. OH! Special meditation no doubt on the night of the super blue moon {L0;} great big hill. Yeah sure, my typing gets greedy, but then again it’s all for the NEEDY🙏 (Blog host AL-M
we’ve been riffing on King of the Road {…} Roger Miller: Nov’64
JP HART
08/25/2023 @ 3:43 pm
Johnny Cash, Kris Kristofferson, Willie Nelson Greatest Hits*
🎭Flashback Friday Gentlemen🎭
*…better tomorrows…*