Bluffing Comment
Kosher, I think you don’t understand the concept of bluffing until you are forced into action. Think of it more like brinksmanship. Putin was, and is, essentially saying, do this, or I will do that. NATO’s response is, we would prefer you not do that, but we are not doing this. The suggestion by Putin is the bluff, the pressure, the brink. The response by NATO is calling the bluff or not. Giving in to Putin’s demand off the top gives Putin the incentive to keep going forward until it is too costly. NATO’s position is to make it too costly now. The “bluff” is to demand the goods without paying. So, the bluff, as it were, does not have to be limited to Ukraine. It can extend to all democracies if he can figure out a way to bring pressure.
The concept of bluffing is not limited to how a bluff works in a game. In a game, it is limited to two options. In geo-politics, the options are limitless. In poker, you can’t say, give me the pot, not give me your car, now give me your family, now give me your house…etc. Those things have to be in the pot. The game has parameters. This military bluff is ONLY limited by what the opponents will allow him to take. You are using too narrow of a definition of bluffing to understand what is actually happening.
koshersalaami
02/22/2022 @ 7:11 pm
Of course it’s brinkmanship. What I find odd is that you think there’s any way in Hell Putin did not have an intention to invade if he didn’t get what he asked for. No one has presented a shred of evidence as to that.
However many choices you think there are, only two matter here: security guarantees/no security guarantees,
Invade/not invade. There aren’t infinite variables here. There are two.
Bitey
02/22/2022 @ 7:55 pm
Ok, that does clear up the confusion a bit.
As for security guarantees, I think we have learned a great deal about that in the past week. Frankly, I don’t think there are any. Putin has been planning this, apparently, for many years. He has some megalomaniacal aspiration of becoming some great Czar. He seeks empire. He claims that Ukraine and its culture never really existed. Everything in his recent speech can be interpreted as his intention to go after the other former soviet client states. The concept of security guarantees doesn’t even apply to the situation that we are faced with here.
ArtWStone
02/22/2022 @ 8:06 pm
I do not think that I misunderstood Ron Powell’s use of the word “bluff”, however, a fluctuating and nebulous term such as “security guaranties” still puzzles me.
Bitey
02/22/2022 @ 8:53 pm
“Today’s crisis echoes 1938, when Hitler stirred the restiveness of separatists: ethnic Germans in Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland…”—George Will 2/22/2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/22/putin-ukraine-invasion-is-bismarckian/
Now, Kosh, I said this about a week or so ago. You told me that it was not an apt comparison. I don’t recall where it was, or why you thought so. Now that I see George Will agrees with me, would you care to tell me again where I was wrong?
Ron Powell
02/22/2022 @ 10:19 pm
The firewall on this server is blocking your connection.
You need to contact the server owner or hosting provider for further information.
Your blocked IP address is: 172.58.201.51
The hostname of this server is: vps.bindlesnitch.com
Ron Powell
02/22/2022 @ 10:21 pm
I was being blocked. The foregoing comment was a test.
02/23/2022 @ 3:55 pm
Alan, here. I am testing the site with one of my dummy accounts. Ron is having a problem logging onto the site but I cannot duplicate the problem. Is anyone else having this issue?
Bitey
02/23/2022 @ 4:38 pm
Intermittently, yes. Sometimes I get Error 404 page does not exist. Sometimes I can’t comment. Sometimes I can make a post but it wont show. I made this post when I was not allowed to comment most recently.
Ron Powell
02/24/2022 @ 5:42 pm
I stated earlier that we haven’t fully explored the intricacies and nuances of the ‘bluff’:
Bitey
02/24/2022 @ 5:53 pm
Wrong. There are infinite variables. When he invaded varies by the second. Where he goes varies. How long he stays varies. The means he uses vary. He could invade, then withdraw, then invade again. He could topple the government. He could leave it intact. He could imprison those who fight against Russia. He could imprison random civilians. He could chose not to. It is an extortion game, Kosher. He can do whatever his evil mind comes up with, unless someone resists him.