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02/24/2022 @ 11:25 am
Presumably Putin has a death wish
.
PANW surges: 522.16 +$46.03 9.64%☢
M.A.D. Bull vs. Insane Bear
Yeah right: PET scans
Crosshairs, crossroads
02/24/2022 @ 11:39 am
The general consensus is that Putin is nuts.
02/24/2022 @ 12:05 pm
“Of course Putin’s going to invade. He’s not irresponsible enough not to.” Koshersalaami
There are only two people on the planet I know of who would agree with the analysis and assessment that would conclude with the Koshersalaami conundrum:
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
02/24/2022 @ 2:40 pm
It was terrible to see it here. When questioning it I was told we’re not discussing it here.
That was inexplicable.
We’re owed an apology.
02/24/2022 @ 12:54 pm
Robert B. James retweeted
genius marketing: this star in my ROCKSTAR pop top
curious if anyone else knows Nevil Shute’s surname is Norway {…}
02/24/2022 @ 3:49 pm
If you walked down a street and saw someone stabbing every baby they saw, surely you’d confront it and stop it. It’s crazy beyond anything you ever expect to encounter. But, would you seek an apology for it? I would not begrudge you one, but any person willing to do such a thing would not see the value or purpose of an apology. That’s how I see apologia for Vladimir Putin. Yeah, the stuff like, ‘his mental state doesn’t matter’ is obviously wrong. It doesn’t make sense on its face. Anyone can lose track of a detail, but I noticed over time that successive points were trivialized. That seemed deliberate. The dispute of “thug” and the use of the term “pickpocket” in a rebuttal…probably minor. Taken together with half a dozen other aspects of trivialization indicates a teleology.
02/24/2022 @ 6:08 pm
I concede to this more reasonable response.
I do not expect nor would I see an apology as being relative to the offense.
The offense is clear. It is a metaphorical baby stabbing and has shocked me.
We’re witnessing parsing at its illogical worst.
My disappointment is that I have most often admired the complex thinking we have seen in the past, but this seems to be a strange brew that defies explanation or validity.
I hope it changes.
02/24/2022 @ 6:09 pm
Me too.
02/25/2022 @ 1:41 am
I’m getting a bit tired of my “He’s not irresponsible enough not to” being taken out of its original context. Ron, you’re right about it being analysis and assessment, but don’t assume that analysis and assessment are synonymous with apologia. They’re not, and I’ve continuously been clear about that. That’s easy enough to verify, the threads are still up. The context of my statement was a long synopsis of what Putin’s experiences are likely to lead him to conclude.
Now that’s being confirmed in a really awful way. What could possibly lead someone as historically deliberate and careful as Putin to mention nukes? Particularly when no one is threatening to send troops to Ukraine.
Nukes are suicidal. Whether or not we talk about MAD any more, it still works. A nuclear war means inevitable mutual destruction. There’s only one reason to consider using them: If you believe your survival is being threatened.
Let me be very clear about something: I do not think Russia’s survival is being threatened, and I don’t think NATO on the Ukrainian border represents a genuine existential threat to Russia. I do not think the invasion of Ukraine is justified.
However, I absolutely believe Putin thinks NATO on Russia’s Ukrainian border represents a threat to Russian survival, and I think he reached that conclusion based on his interpretation of actual evidence. That’s precisely why we’re looking at these stakes. If Putin is talking about nukes, he’s way, way, way more afraid of NATO on his southern border than he is of sanctions.
The West had an opportunity to defuse this and blew it. That doesn’t mean that the West is to blame for Putin’s invasion; it was Putin’s choice to invade, not ours. But he could not have been more clear about what he was worried about and how seriously he took that worry. We dismissed his concerns and now an invasion is in progress and the prospect of nuclear war has been raised by a person completely capable of waging it, and I don’t mean waging it like North Korea, I mean waging it like destroying humanity.
We can scream at Putin all we want. We can condemn him all he want. We can sanction him all we want. He’s not going to care. As I’ve said repeatedly, he really is that afraid of NATO on that border.
He might be bluffing about nukes. That’s entirely possible. But I don’t think the point of his talking about nukes is really about threatening us with nukes, I think the point is to let the West know that he really is that serious about this. I think his point is You Will Not Threaten Russia’s Survival, No Matter What.
The crisis had to be defused better than this. Trivializing his concerns was unbelievably stupid. And I don’t say that on Monday morning, I said it before the invasion.
02/26/2022 @ 7:09 pm
“I absolutely believe Putin thinks NATO on Russia’s Ukrainian border represents a threat to Russian survival…”
That being the case, how does the following fit in to your assessment and analysis?:
“Russia threatens ‘military and political consequences’ if Finland, Sweden try joining NATO”
—-The Hill
I’m in full agreement with Bitey.
Putin is fast becoming an unhinged thug with his finger on the button…
Your analysis and assessment synopsis is simply flat out wrong….
02/25/2022 @ 8:25 am
You’re wrong, Kosher. You have been wrong all along, and it shows that you hear nothing but your own voice. Here is how you are wrong.
“Nukes are suicidal. Whether or not we talk about MAD any more, it still works. A nuclear war means inevitable mutual destruction…”
True enough. Nukes are suicidal. However, when I mentioned assessing Putin’s state of mind, you scoffed at the notion. You said it was irrelevant. Now you are invoking it in your comment. You’re so busy arguing that you are arguing with yourself. Putin’s state of mind is obviously relevant. Don’t be so quick to be dismissive of others.
“I do not think Russia’s survival is being threatened, and I don’t think NATO on the Ukrainian border represents a genuine existential threat to Russia…”
Agreed. I do not think Russia’s survival is being threatened. No one believes that, with the possible exception of Putin himself. That being the case, the Russian people also do not believe that Russia’s existence is being threatened. Therefore, Putin is not acting in the best interest of the Russian people. The Russian people do not fear NATO, as you previously stated. You’re trying to swim both ends of the pool at once here. Don’t be so quick to be dismissive.
“We can scream at Putin all we want. We can condemn him all he want. We can sanction him all we want. He’s not going to care. As I’ve said repeatedly, he really is that afraid of NATO on that border…”
Again, you miss the point. Condemning Putin is not a solution. It is not a proposed solution. It is an orientation. You lack it. You’re looking in the wrong direction. Putin is nuts to invoke nuclear weapons. Putin is incorrectly seeing NATO as a threat to Russia. You just said as much. Therefore, acceding to Putin’s demands are not the solution. That makes as much sense as taking Ivermectin to cure Covid. It doesn’t work, and the people who suggest it does should not be followed…or appeased. They have to be countered by other means than to swallow their proscriptions.
What Putin fears is democracy, not NATO, per se. Are you willing to surrender democracy so that Putin can feel safe? No? Neither am I. Ukraine does not want to surrender its freedom to appease Putin, and many Russians do not believe that they should have to. Your assessment of NATO being feared by Russians is dead wrong. Putin himself is the malignancy. Condemning him means understanding the source of the problem. Ignoring it wont fix anything. It will only guarantee metastasis.
When the passengers on the flight that went down in Shanksville Pa decided to storm the cockpit to stop the hijackers, they knew that it meant their end. They assessed accurately that they were going to die anyway, and they stopped the plan, rather than to let it continue to its completion. This is similar to our situation now. Putin entered the scene with nukes. We can’t control that. But, just because we can’t control that does not mean that we should just let Putin control everything simply because he does have nukes. At some point courage is necessary to support a broader principle. You are wrong about who is to blame for the situation as it stands now. Giving in to Putin would not have changed a thing. Putin is responsible for the situation. The Russian people think so. Israel thinks so. The rest of the world thinks so.
Bobby Knight (1988) once said, “if rape is inevitable, just lay back and enjoy it…”. Knight was wrong then. You are wrong in exactly the same way now.
02/27/2022 @ 12:07 am
At this point events have led me to the conclusion that I might very well be wrong about why Putin mentioned nukes.
Putin did something unexpectedly stupid, which is not normal for him. Unethical is normal but not stupid. He invaded without the ability to win easily. And the Russians aren’t. They’re taking heavy casualties, they haven’t taken the capital, and perhaps most unexpected of all they don’t own the skies.
He is now in the act of committing a cardinal sin: He’s making Russia look weak. That is bouncing on him everywhere. Kazakhstan has refused him troops. More Western countries are supplying Ukraine as they conclude that those arms will not be wasted and fall quickly into Russian hands, and those countries now include Germany. NATO is more unified than it’s been in years. Ukraine is looking plucky, particularly with that wonderful quote of Zelenskyy which will likely become historical – when offered refuge by the US, he replied “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Russians aren’t going to accept a lot of casualties if all it does is embarrass them.
Now Putin has to look strong and decisive and he’s clutching at straws, so that’s not how he’s looking at all. He’s talking about Finland probably because he’s trying to make a rule about new nations with which he shares a border joining NATO, as in “it’s not just Ukraine.” And playing the nuke card is a sign that he thinks he needs to. It would have been one thing if he said it to indicate just how seriously he takes the threat, but that’s not what it indicates now.
This episode could put Putin in domestic trouble.
02/27/2022 @ 12:10 am
Regarding the Bobby Knight quote, that would have been appropriate if in our negotiations with Putin we were allowing him to take over Ukraine but the point behind the negotiations was for him not to.
02/27/2022 @ 5:13 am
By now, it is quite clear that Putin has done this for his purposes, and not for Russia’s. His recent speeches have revealed that this is about his legacy, and not about national security. Any paranoia at play here is Putin’s alone, and not anything relating to Russian history. Germany is to the West of Poland and Ukraine. When Russia Russia experienced invasion by hostile enemies during WWII, so did Ukraine and Poland. The notion of invasion by a hostile enemy now to prevent against invasion by a hostile enemy later makes no sense.
As for Putin threatening use of nukes, Putin watchers and Putin-ologists have stated that his emotional state has appeared to have diminished in the last couple of years. Emmanuel Macron says Putin seems diminished. Professionals who study his speech here in US intelligence say that he has become more rigid. His demeanor is more angry. According to Macron, Putin is “speaking in circles”, and referencing history that never happened. In short, and for whatever reason, Putin is not all there. It may be temporary, or he may be experiencing some permanent crumbling of his psychological state and intellect. Whichever the case, it is more reasonable to conclude that Putin is mentioning nukes in the way that he has because he’s nuts. He has already demonstrated poor decision making on a variety of levels. There is no reason to assume that this particular weakness of his does not extend to nuclear weapons. Part of Putin’s psychological profile previously has been an inferiority complex. The saber-rattling of nukes sounds like as much that as anything.
Whatever the case, Putin’s psychological state is obviously of paramount significance. Now that he is personally being sanctioned by nations of the world (the authorities), it will be harder for him to enter negotiations to end the conflict, so he is even more isolated than he was previously. His access and willingness to use any sort of weapon, most especially nukes, rests on his ability to be rational. He has to be prepared to lose. His loss will come in months or more likely years, but he will lose. The question that remains is, will he make the world suffer for his ego like he is currently making Ukraine suffer for his ego.
02/27/2022 @ 10:52 pm
At this point I have to agree. The motivation of fear of NATO was plausible for a Russian leader but I no longer think that’s what’s driving Putin.
I don’t think the Russian people thought very highly of NATO. However, they do think highly of the Ukrainians, and that is one factor that has made things difficult for Putin, including a lot of protests at home.
As it turns out, Putin made a really, really bad miscalculation. He assumed he’d be able to march into Ukraine, take it over, and it would be a fait accompli. That’s not what happened at all. The Ukrainians were prepared and the invading Russians were, oddly enough, not, failing basics like setting up fuel supplies, which made their tanks sitting ducks. Russian casualty counts are way, way higher than equivalent time in Afghanistan. The soldiers feel uncomfortable because they view Ukrainians as neighbors, and with a language that’s intelligible to Russians. What’s strangest of all is that Russian forces don’t even own the air.
While Russian conquest has taken time, a lot of other nations understand that supplying Ukraine isn’t a lost cause. The Ukrainians themselves understand this with many men sending their families out of the combat areas and volunteering, so Ukrainian forces are growing. And Zelenskyy made a brilliant comment that resonates everywhere and is probably already slated for the next edition of Bartlett’s Quotations: I need ammunition, not a ride.
Russia is getting reinforcements, though not all he wanted. He asked for troops from Khazakstan and they refused. The country that’s about to help him is Belarus because Belarus is the closest to a puppet regime he has.
The result of Ukraine not folding is twofold. The first is that it makes Putin look weak, which is something he absolutely can’t afford because that undermines him both internationally and at home. The second is that he ended up with what is close to a self-fulfilling prophesy and he’s made NATO much more dangerous. They’re now unified. Possibly worse, they lost Germany, who has approved the sending of German-made weapons to Ukraine and who has just better than doubled their defense budget. If anything should scare the Hell out of him it’s a remilitarizing Germany and he’s managed to accomplish that singlehandedly. (China has done the same thing with Japan. Again, not a good idea for China.) But that’s a remilitarized Germany allied with France, the United Kingdom, the US, and Poland.
And that’s why he’s talking about nukes. His conventional capabilities are currently not scaring people. The Ukrainians have seen to that.
02/27/2022 @ 11:40 pm
Tomorrow starts an interesting week in Europe and America. There will be volatility in the markets, and probably a run on currency in Russia. State of the Union is Tuesday, and the GOP has to decide whether they will stand in support of a call for support for Ukraine, or sit and show a lack of support for Biden. Some like MTG have already spoken in favor of Putin, so this will be a seriously complex choice for them. Similarly, Rashida Tlaib will be making a Progressive response to Biden. She will have to be careful not to be pulling to hard away from Biden at a time like this. I’m sure Biden’s message people are shrewd enough to make this a difficult step for his detractors domestically.
A quick victory likely benefits Russia. For Ukraine to prevail, it will likely need to be a prolonged insurgency. That will also be devastating for Ukraine. I’ve never followed a war like this one being covered on social media. I have also never been on the side of the insurgents. Rooting for the plain clothed insurgents throwing Molotov cocktails is a different feeling. It has a very different feel on the news.
02/27/2022 @ 6:10 pm
Speculative what’s in VP’s nearby black brief case. Rather like pointing out that 2/3’s of GOD is OD {…}
IMHO/specious/thesis please allow the proposition that ‘we’ proffer a transcontinental MAG-LEV to his ‘holy than thou’ Motherland.
Presumably the wealthiest best and brightest (who right now also walk this lonesome valley) would effectively cloud source such, such a railroad to rejuvenate Russia. Hey China would be guaranteed fresh barley and hops etcetera. The deal of course requires IMMEDIATE withdrawal of his scared and lonely henchmen! And, quantitatively, us mortals would remain safe, healthy, sane and (italics implied) PROSPEROUS. I suggest that Boo-hoo-tin has not read >Paradise Lost< and ought, post-haste — take the deal. Right now we're in a time warp with mid-March. Bloke is acting like a wrong-way driver on glare ice. Take the train dude, really.