The Polls & The Possibilities of Presidential Politics
The latest MSNBC, ‘Morning Joe’, scuttlebutt is that Democratic insiders are afraid that Biden’s campaign will collapse or implode, and that if Warren wins the nomination, she will not pivot or tack far enough to the right to satisfy “moderates” or “centrists”….
In the Emerson Poll, New Hampshire: All 2020 Democrats but Warren beat Trump in New Hampshire
Every 2020 Democratic presidential candidate but Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) beat President Trump in New Hampshire in a poll released Tuesday.
In theoretical match-ups, Emerson Polling found that all of the Democratic candidates won out over Trump except for Warren, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading. With a 10-point lead, Biden earned the votes of 55 percent of participants.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/460759-poll-all-2020-democrats-but-warren-beat-trump-in-new-hampshire
On the other hand:
As I’ve been saying: Wall Street Fearful of Warren Presidency
CNBC: Cramer: Wall Street executives are saying Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 bid has ‘got to be stopped’
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/jim-cramer-wall-street-saying-elizabeth-warren-must-be-stopped.html
The Emerson Poll seems to be an outlier:
General Election: Trump vs. Warren Polling Data
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
Elizabeth Warren has been my pick for President precisely because Wall Street fears her…
My advice to her is: Go for it on your own terms, be yourself, and stay the course….
My question is this: Can Trump cause a surge in political sexism and misogyny sufficiently enough to derail a Warren campaign and candidacy?
09/12/2019 @ 11:20 am
The Short answer to your question is yes. The Democrats lost two house seats on Tuesday. The spread was close, but it was clear that voters in Georgia and North Carolina are not repudiating Trump or his supporters.
At present, right now, Trump already has 260 electoral votes in the bag, because that’s how one-sided the Republican/Democratic registrations are in those states. Trump only needs one toss up state to win. The Democrats need them all.
It will be a close race. In that close race, I have already given New Hampshire to the Democratic party, regardless of the candidate. Those four electoral votes are important to the Democrats. They are meaningless to the Republican candidate.
This being the case, a single poll in NH is meaningless. What is also meaningless are polls that compare Trump to a line up of possible Democratic candidate. On Election Day, Trump will only be competing against one of those candidates, and that candidate will harvest pretty much all of the Democratic votes in that state.
It is really important for Democrats to realize that all polls are bogus for a number of reasons, and that no nation wide preference polls means shit on election day. That was one of the 30 reasons that Clinton lost. She – and her team – were seduced by the nationwide polls that showed her winning. The polls were accurate. She won the popular vote. They were accurate and wrong because the did not correctly predict the outcome of the electoral college vote.
I correctly picked Trump weeks before the election because i was reading only the most impartial state by state polls. No one listened then. No one will listen now.
09/12/2019 @ 11:30 am
First of all, this is not a national poll. It’s a New Hampshire poll. If this poll had been taken in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Ohio, I might be worried.
No, Trump cannot cause a surge that would derail her candidacy because the surge would be just about entirely in his existing base. The likely electoral decider is not likely to be independents, it’s likely to be how many Democrats vote. That’s what lost us the 2016 election, not that Trump did well, because he did no better than Romney, but that HIllary did badly.
For Warren to tack Right would mean she’d run the risk of losing more of her base than the independents she’d pick up.
There’s a caveat here. There’s a big difference between looking like tacking right and actually tacking right. She is not a socialist, she’s a capitalist. I get this – so am I. My problem with where we are is that our current generation of capitalism is underregulated to the point where it’s damaging America’s health in a lot of ways including economically. For her to say
“Look, I’m not talking about getting rid of private ownership, private investment, stopping people from getting rich, taxing them out of being rich, any of that. Our distribution of wealth is so skewed that consumers can’t buy enough. What I’m advocating is actually good for business.”
Is not a tack to the right, it’s a clarification of a preexisting position and, as importantly, an addressing of myths about her position.
There are certain companies that should worry, such as those who run private prisons. I support her targeting of industries like that.
09/12/2019 @ 4:17 pm
“The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door. That’s the only difference.”
~ Ralph Nader
O’Rourke, Harris, Booker, etc. break the sound barrier on their drop (for all the good it will do them).
Sadly, it appears Warren isn’t far behind them (her third largest source of campaign contributions is from Lawyers/Lobbyists and is growing faster than all other categories)
Not surprisingly, both Biden and Trump are simply staying on their knees.
Here’s the thing (and which is starting to become clearer and clearer)… You just need to follow the money…
The oligarchy funded DNC WILL jam Biden down the Democratic parties throat. They are going to do this by propping up Warren as the “Centrist” acceptable version of Sanders (supported by their money)… until the convention.
At the convention the oligarchy bought and paid for Super Delegates will nominate Biden after no one can achieve 50+ percent. Warren is going to get her pay-off by being selected as VP.
As additional proof of this (and her duplicity) is her “up front” support for Medicare for All with those whom it is popular (i.e. the “masses”) and then her back tracking and willingness to “compromise” when she is talking to her big donors who have strong DNC ties. Part two of that is that Warren is in close contact with Hillary and her minions “behind the scenes”. That ties her DIRECTLY to the DNC leadership’s controlled Hillary 2.0, as opposed to being a “progressive” exception.
In other words, Ron… she is REALLY starting to not look like we initially believed her to be… it’s is starting to look like she has been positioned by the Powers that Be to be the Judas Goat who leads the Democratic base, who don’t fully endorse “Vote Blue No Matter Who”, to the slaughter house. I then fully expect Biden to tie her out on the lawn so he can point at what a good, woman supporting guy he is.
Meanwhile, those of us who are “If You Run Creepy Joe, Don’t Expect Me to Go!”-ers will be in the same position the DNC put us into the last time and THAT will result in another term of Trump.
P.S. Running an unacceptable candidate is ALL on the DNC, BTW. Anyone who is going to do the Clintonista-ish “It’s your fault we lost” crap can kiss my tan ass. They really need to own their own shit AGAIN, but won’t.
09/12/2019 @ 6:35 pm
That’s an awful lot of prognostication….
09/12/2019 @ 6:42 pm
Mebe so, but if she and he are that far to the right during the primaries, you can bet your ass that they have drank the “We need the Centrists!” DNC koolaid.
How well did that work out when they pulled that crap with Gore, Kerry or Clinton (all “Centrists” who “supposedly would bring in the “Light Red” vote, but didn’t)???
09/12/2019 @ 7:33 pm
It’s sad but true that Bernie is perceived as too old and too radical…
Biden is going to falter somewhere and may not recover from shooting himself in the foot…
Warren isn’t perfect, who is, but she’s the best of the top 3…
If she can get 10% of what she promises done, the country wins….
09/12/2019 @ 7:52 pm
Perceived that way by whom? Certainly not younger voters, people of color, women, Latinos, etc. (including the LGBTQ community, the majority of which don’t like “Mayor Pete” worth a damn):
“An analysis of recent polls from November of 2018 to March 2019 shows Sanders is more popular with people of color than white people, and women like Sanders as much as men do, if not more. He leads every other possible 2020 contender with Latino voters and lags behind only Joe Biden — who hasn’t announced a bid yet — with African-American voters. Sanders’ polling numbers with black voters are double that of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), according to a March Morning Consult poll.”
https://www.vox.com/2019/3/7/18216899/bernie-sanders-bro-base-polling-2020-president
09/12/2019 @ 8:05 pm
You need to pay closer attention to how the media is casting Bernie…
09/12/2019 @ 7:18 pm
That’s an awful lot of prognostication…
The relationship between politics and money and money interests in this country is an obscenity…Everybody knows that….
The problem here is that somebody is going to be elected to the office of President in 2020…
If you place any value on the American dream that is a social illusion, and the experiment in Democracy that is yet to be completed, it had better NOT be Trump…
If Trump gets a second term, the pooch is screwed, and you had better make plans to vacate before he steals enough money from the Veteran’s Administration and elsewhere to complete the wall he’s building with purloined military funds to KEEP YOU IN!
Anyone who believes that there isn’t, at the very least, a moral difference between Trump and ANYONE who opposes him, is trying to grasp high stakes, prime time politics in this country with the civic chops and comprehension capacity of a 3rd grader…
The only way Trump wins is that he makes his opponent to appear to be as undesirable as he is…
Refusing to vote and whining about the choices is pretty much what Trump wants you and your contemporaries to do…
In the end, if the Dems don’t get the necessary turnout in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois, it’s a wrap.
The fact that you and your contemporaries know this to be the case, and would stay home and abstain from voting anyway, would make you complicit in the demise and destruction of the American political system and process…
Good luck with living with the consequences of that…
09/12/2019 @ 7:46 pm
Who said we won’t vote? The thing is that I (or millions upon millions of others) refuse to drink the DNC koolaid and vote for whom they tell us to, no matter HOW abhorrent.
It’s shaping up just like last time… the DNC and the oligarchy “assumes” that as long as they keep crowing “…but he/she isn’t as bad as _________ (fill in the blank)” that we will vote their way. Not voting isn’t an option for me, but not voting for Biden or some other DNC coronated douche bag sure is.
09/12/2019 @ 9:44 pm
The person who wins the nomination will, by definition, be ‘coronated’ by the DNC….
09/12/2019 @ 11:47 pm
Let’s review the stakes. What does the Trump administration do?
/Treat climate change as a hoax, which at this point is looking more and more like it will get us all killed or, at the very least, trigger dire shortages and millions of refugees short term
/Favor coal over renewables, even though renewables are better for the economy even if we leave the costs of pollution out
/Damage most of our alliances
/Gut the State Department so we won’t have the expertise to repair our alliances
/Gut public education
/Decrease taxes on our wealthiest individuals
/Gut civil rights enforcement
/Remove protections entirely from the trans population
/Protect and encourage bigots, thereby increasing hate crimes
/Further endanger minority lives by giving unconditional support to police forces in brutality cases
/Turn facts into something not trusted in common political discourse
/Cage immigrant children
/Encourage and cooperate with foreign interference in our elections
/Oppose the evidence universally supported by and presented by America’s intelligence services
/Nominate Supreme Court justices who tend to oppose minority and womens’ protections and tend to favor corporations over citizens
What could possibly be this bad for the country? Apparently, being douchebags. You’ll notice that the DNC, Biden, and Hillary – the farthest Right of our alternatives – favor NONE of the above. This list is all supposed to be the equivalent of…….being douchebags?
I would sooner put a bumper sticker on my car saying Vote For Democratic Douchebags than not vote for whomever gives us the highest probability of getting rid of Trump. I’d rather it be Warren but if it’s Biden I’ll still vote for him. The list above is not remotely trivial and the differences between the parties are stark on these issues.
Some people cannot bring themselves to vote for a more centrist Democrat if they turn out to be our nominee for President. I cannot bring myself not to in order to get rid of Trump. Whether or not it is politically stupid to rely on converting centrists rather than mobilizing leftists, anything to get Trump out.
09/13/2019 @ 5:36 pm
You DO realize that these are primaries, don’t you? You also realize that virtually any candidate is polling ahead of Trump and several are beating him by substantial margins, right? Don’t you think this is the time to push like hell to get the most progressive candidate as opposed to the utter shit the DNC is trying to spoon feed us??? If not, they you are the perfect “Democrat”. The DNC loves gullible shits like you.
09/13/2019 @ 6:31 pm
I would tend to agree…
But you needn’t use epithets to make your point…
10/11/2019 @ 3:09 pm
The Democrats don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell and they know it! So they will roll with this fake impeachment inquiry that hasn’t been legitimized by a vote! Why? Distraction and leis of course.!