The Democratic Party is about to lose the Governor’s Office in Oregon for one simple, stupid reason:

Right now, the Democratic candidate for Governor, state representative Tina Kotek, is running neck and neck with Republican challenger, Christine Drazan, a pro-gun, anti-abortion, anti-climate state representative, in a race where, until recently, Kotek was running three to four points behind her Republican rival.

Democrats have held the governor’s office in Oregon for more than 36 years. They are probably going to lose that office because Democrat Betsy Johnson, a former state senator, is running as an independent non-affiliated candidate who is currently claiming just under 14% of the projected vote.

In other words, add Kotek’s 39.1% of the project vote to Johnson’s 14%, and you get  53% and a commanding victory.

Here’s the thing: Johnson knows she can’t win but she won’t drop out of the race…thus giving Republican Drazan a clear shot at the title.

This is why we can’t have nice things. Democrats have too much ego and too little common sense.

But the mass media keeps misreading the tea leaves. Oregonians aren’t turning against the Democratic party en masse despite the fact that an April 2022 poll appeared to indicate that Oregonians would favor a generic Republican against a generic Democrat by 18%.

That doesn’t ring at all true when the pre-ballot polling shows that the two Democrats in the running outpoll the Republican by just under 5%.

That’s a collective 23% shift in the Democratic party’s favor since April but the pundits keep referring to that April poll as if it represents the current reality when it clearly does not.

Nevertheless, Oregonians will see, hear and read that Oregonians are fleeing the Democratic party and, in the cases of the Democrats who are sitting on the fence, those gems of disinformation might just tip them over into the Republican camp.

If you want to see how quickly the Democrats are losing their grip, look at Wisconsin, a former bastion of the Democratic party, which is now on the verge of handing the Republicans a veto-proof majority in the state legislature…largely because of the ceaseless disinformation campaigns that are portraying Democrats as the villains with respect to every conceivable issue…and some that are simply inconceivable.

The loss of the governorship in Oregon and the legislature in Wisconsin could very well determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

In Oregon, where the Republicans don’t have a chance of gaining a veto-proof majority in this go-around, they might actually take over the state legislature if the predicted Republican landslide develops and the GOP can pick up seven votes in the Senate and six in the House.  In that event,  with  Republicans in effective control over the state legislature, they could decertify the popular vote and substitute electors pledged to the Republican candidate. With a Republican in the Oregon governor’s office, there would be no mechanism that could stop them.

In Wisconsin, with a veto-proof Republican majority, decertification of the popular vote is an even more worrisome possibility.

And this is the real reason that we can’t have nice things.

When one stupid Democrat anywhere in America says something really stupid like, “We should eliminate I.C. E.” (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), that becomes front-page news throughout the Republican media multiverse…and the Republicans get beat all Democrats up with that cudgel.  Every off-beat, off-the-cuff comment any Democrat makes gets charged against all Democrats…and it works.

For some strange reason, it doesn’t work the other way. When a Republican says stupid shit, everyone just waves it off as another stupid opinion that doesn’t really matter.

And that is precisely how the Republicans are going to hijack Social Security and Medicare, by waiving off Republican comments about those matters as irrelevant because “most” Republicans don’t subscribe to them when, in fact, they really do.